Live prices from Kalshi and Polymarket
Parity compares Kalshi and Polymarket, subtracts the fees, and checks the rules, so you only see gaps worth a look.
Real gaps are small and short-lived. Parity is built to show you which ones are worth a look.
15-MINUTE MARKETS WE TRACK
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, BNB, NEAR, Hyperliquid, Zcash, Gold, Silver and WTI crude oil.
From two price lists to one number you can trust.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices, side by side. The pairs closest to a real gap refresh every few seconds.
Two markets can sound identical and still settle differently. Parity reads the rules on both sides.
Will the Fed cut rates in December?
The gap you see is what is left after both platforms take their cut.
Set a size and a minimum gap, and get told only about gaps you could actually trade.
Free to peek. Pay when speed matters.
Everything is open while Parity is in beta. Plan limits apply when billing launches, and prices are a starting guess.
Prediction markets involve real money and real risk, and nothing here is financial advice. Check that Kalshi and Polymarket are available where you live.
Strongest 15-minute lean
Real money, real risk. Only use money you can afford to lose.
These pass your rules filter but fall short on net gap or return.
Net gap is what’s left after both platforms’ taker fees, with both legs bought at the ask. The fee model here is a placeholder: Kalshi about 7% × price × (1 − price), and Polymarket’s category rates applied the same way (crypto 7%, economics, culture and weather 5%, politics, finance and tech 4%, geopolitics free), based on published schedules from mid-2026. Maker orders can cost less but may not fill. Check both platforms’ current fee pages before trading. Nothing here is financial advice.
Alerts skip stale quotes and respect your size, rules and quiet-hours settings.
Turn on phone alerts in Settings. Gap and price alerts set to Push are then checked on the server, so they reach you even when Parity is closed. “New market” alerts only run while the app is open.
Sized to the money at stake: a 3¢ gap on $500 is about $15, so Pro suits people trading hundreds per gap, and Trader suits people trading thousands.
Everything is open while Parity is in beta. Plan limits apply when billing launches, and prices are a starting guess.
Open any gap in the Scanner and tap “Add to watchlist”. It stays here with live prices, saved on this device.
Coming soon. Log both sides of a gap and see what you have locked in, and when it pays out.
Record the two legs you bought, the size, and the fees you paid.
See what is guaranteed, what is still open, and the days left until payout.
Get flagged if a market’s rules or prices change under a position you hold.
Download your trades as a spreadsheet for taxes and records.
Coming soon. Parity records every price it sees, so this will show how gaps behave over time.
How often each market opens a real gap, and how long it lasts.
When gaps tend to be widest, by hour and by day of the week.
Which categories and platform pairs produce the most real gaps.
Compare your yearly return against simply holding cash.
Plain-English answers. Prediction markets involve real money and real risk, and nothing here is financial advice.
EV is expected value: the average profit per dollar if you could make the same bet many times. A bet is +EV when a sportsbook pays more than the bet’s true chance deserves. Parity estimates the true chance from the other books’ prices, after removing each book’s built-in cut, then compares it with the price you could take. It is an estimate, not a promise: a +EV bet still loses often.
With few books pricing a bet, one odd price can make the others look like value. Parity needs at least three other books, labels how closely they agree, and hides edges above 30%, which are almost always a stale or wrong price. Turn on “Show risky ones” to see them anyway.
An arbitrage bets both sides of the same line at two different books whose prices add up to less than 100%. Stake each side in the right proportion and you win the same amount either way. It must be two books, because one book never offers it to you. Arbs vanish fast, books can limit accounts that take them, and rules for a player who does not play can differ between books, so confirm both prices before betting.
A combo here is a parlay of +EV bets at one book, every leg from a different game. Different games are independent, so the odds multiply exactly and the edges compound, but so does the chance of losing: a four-leg parlay hits far less often. Same-game parlays are not built, because books price their correlation themselves. Check that your book allows the legs to be combined.
Tennis has no ESPN win percentage, so the chance shown beside a match comes from somewhere else, and the label tells you where: Model is a forecasting model’s win probability, and Market is a prediction market’s price read as a chance. Some matches have neither, and then you see a dash. Bets are match winner, game spread and total games, priced by the sportsbooks like any other sport. If a player retires or withdraws, books can settle bets differently, so check both books’ rules, especially for arbs.
It is ESPN’s own model of each team’s chance to win: a pregame prediction, and a live number once the game starts. It sits beside every team-sport listing for context (tennis uses a model or market number instead, see the tennis answer), and on moneylines it shows how far it is from the sportsbooks. It is not used to decide what is +EV, because the books’ own prices are the better yardstick. Some games have no ESPN number, and then you see a dash.
Kalshi and Polymarket let you bet on the same real-world question, like “Will the Fed cut rates?” Sometimes they price it differently. Buy YES on the cheaper one and NO on the other, and if both markets resolve the same way, exactly one side pays $1. If the two together cost less than $1 after fees, the difference is your profit. That difference is the gap.
Two markets can sound identical and still resolve differently: a different data source, cutoff time, or definition. If they resolve differently, both sides can lose. That is why Parity reads the rules and labels every pair Same rules, Small differences, or Big differences, and hides the risky ones by default.
Both platforms charge fees when you buy. Parity estimates the fee on each side and subtracts it, so the “real gap” is what is left. The fee numbers are estimates: check each platform’s current fee page before you trade.
A price only applies to a limited number of contracts. Buy more and the price moves against you. Parity shows how many contracts are available on each side and sizes everything to the thinner one.
Your money is tied up until the markets resolve. A 2% profit over 90 days is only about 8% a year. Parity shows the yearly equivalent so you can compare it with other places your money could sit.
Only use money you can afford to lose.
Make Parity yours. Everything here is saved on this device.
Using sample data.
Or a web address
Accent Ember
Black hole background
This decides which Polymarket books and funding costs the scanner uses.
Your alert rules and quiet hours live in the Alerts tab. Phone alerts are delivered by the Parity server, so they work even when the app is closed.
Real sportsbook prices, compared across books. For each bet we estimate its true chance from the other books, then show where one book pays more than it should. A win chance sits beside every game: ESPN’s for team sports, a model’s or prediction market’s for tennis.
Bets are suggested at the books you tick. Prices from every book are still used to judge what a fair price is.
Live
Kalshi’s 15-minute up-or-down windows, beside Polymarket’s where it has one. Each percentage is that platform’s own price for “up”, not a forecast.
Strongest 15-minute lean